Jobs
Logistics companies at the eastern border directly employ hundreds of people, and indirectly, at road hauliers, in warehouses, security and service firms, many times more. Border regions often lack alternative employers of a similar size.
State budget
Legitimate freight traffic through Polish border crossings generates revenue from customs duties, VAT, income taxes and social contributions. The insolvency of the companies from which the amounts are claimed does not secure these sums for the budget; it may instead mean the loss of current revenue and the cost of benefits for people losing their jobs.
Local governments
Border municipalities benefit from property tax on terminals and yards, from tax on means of transport and from shares in income taxes. A reduction in activity affects their budgets and local investment.
Poland's position in the transport corridor
If handling traffic at the Polish border becomes burdened with an unpredictable risk of liability for the fraud of others, shipments may move to border crossings in other EU Member States. Traffic once lost is hard to win back.
How we calculate the impact
- We do not add turnover, VAT and contributions together in a single indicator: they serve different economic functions.
- We do not treat the amount of the debt claimed as certain future budget revenue, nor the taxes paid by a company as a certain loss.
- We take into account that part of the activity may be taken over by another entity: we compare realistic scenarios, not extreme simplifications.
- The loss of jobs in a municipality does not automatically mean a proportional fall in its revenue: the model takes into account where employees live and the equalisation mechanisms.